Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 52094.760324 55239.723222 58393.427140 61790.574602 65343.953552 68948.401072 72878.465439
2024-10-13 46886.918434 51667.769566 56606.203935 62080.192050 67969.512889 74106.706465 80977.255285
2024-10-20 43018.231410 48876.141433 55070.365893 62090.999350 69809.742840 78019.782667 87394.836411
2024-10-27 39882.175117 46504.755984 53647.245497 61894.765357 71126.355580 81111.657642 92698.827488
2024-11-03 38116.164592 45445.313991 53484.100661 62913.804901 73628.369480 85380.519760 99200.288787
2024-11-10 36481.398873 44385.159980 53187.410563 63659.710723 75719.435216 89111.482892 105044.847319
2024-11-17 34843.105315 43201.419614 52643.022133 64023.815258 77292.040223 92193.254225 110111.306757
2024-11-24 33167.351530 41871.924078 51838.151642 64000.430144 78344.313931 94623.880554 114392.945628
2024-12-01 31842.348456 40881.731654 51361.955846 64298.211147 79717.621704 97386.969906 119036.765896
2024-12-08 30496.659046 39797.288776 50711.671343 64332.005969 80731.913796 99697.142392 123132.244143
2024-12-15 29731.782663 39377.363848 50821.161456 65243.453125 82767.040228 103197.260810 128633.022406
2024-12-22 28470.106063 38287.436655 50067.164397 65063.414052 83453.609944 105072.121065 132192.723583
2024-12-29 27868.254569 38011.420473 50309.272908 66110.628296 85652.266415 108797.487500 138033.861487
2025-01-05 27032.712741 37406.310294 50116.994115 66602.190654 87163.270987 111699.844058 142907.436367
2025-01-12 26044.857624 36566.029140 49594.987418 66651.686244 88106.038899 113900.314145 146931.048381
2025-01-19 25006.139735 35619.407627 48901.752141 66451.770735 88711.102519 115669.819148 150421.624501
2025-01-26 24601.173703 35483.726892 49227.468181 67531.885542 90913.774816 119409.139563 156349.415388
2025-02-02 24096.445378 35193.735156 49336.464003 68321.541204 92744.363105 122692.054351 161731.058261
2025-02-09 23450.095999 34689.272750 49145.467803 68706.871448 94050.344292 125319.600863 166308.421651
2025-02-16 22669.680441 33975.871385 48655.881178 68682.142125 94815.222190 127260.643143 170029.872817
2025-02-23 22066.105206 33482.725153 48438.465405 68997.212846 96006.493973 129735.715182 174429.382305
2025-03-02 21383.239437 32856.861471 48023.303571 69032.969084 96822.311199 131729.012791 178224.424363
2025-03-09 21088.568064 32760.914742 48311.361476 69997.220960 98849.204196 135273.378059 184007.414083